| Win rate | Chance for Draft Two | Chance to Qualify | Chance to Qualify (40 runs) | EV (no tax) | EV (taxed) |
|---|
Draft One: 7 wins / 2 losses, gems from 4 wins up, Draft Two token at 7.
Draft Two: 6 wins / 2 losses, gems from 1 win, $1,000 + Championship token
at 5 wins, $2,000 + token at 6.
The WR penalty knocks your win rate down in Draft Two, since everyone there
just went 7-x.
If you play 3 days straight with a good win rate you probably can't play
more than ~42 entries to completion (based on player hosu on the 17lands
SOS leaderboard), so the qualify column uses 40 as the effective max
number of runs.
Note that the event structure is insanely top heavy and that unless you
qualify and win a cash prize, you will probably be in the negative.
So, you can consider the Chance to Qualify (40 runs) column as the Chance to Breakeven column.