| Win rate | Chance of 0 gems | Chance of winning event | Avg tries to win event | Net cost per box | EV (no tax) | EV (taxed) |
|---|
No tax: you win one box a year, it's under the $600 reporting
threshold, so no tax form ever shows up and taxes are irrelevant.
Taxed: you pay tax on the box's MSRP (that's what the tax form
reports), then sell it locally for market price (put the current TCGplayer
price in the Market field).
Gems and packs stay in-game and are never taxed. Not tax advice.